As one of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E))’s Human Social, Culture and Behavior (HSCB) flagship programs, Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) has developed and is deploying a comprehensive, integrated, automated, generalizable, and validated system to monitor, assess, and forecast national and international crises in a way that supports decision-making on how to mitigate them. ICEWS will provide Combatant Commanders (COCOMs), the IC, and various government agencies with a powerful, systematic capability to anticipate, track, and respond to stability challenges.
There are four primary elements to ICEWS:
- iDATA: The process that allows the provisioning of the models in near real-time from a variety of international, regional, national and local new sources (over 6000). More than 30 million news stories over the past 13 years are processed to extract .
- iTRACE: provides situation understanding through analysis and visualization of event history trends and patterns generated by iDATA. Time series, map-based views, trends, relationship matrices, and other visualizations are provided with drill-down to underlying stories. Available in ISPAN on SIPR and JWICS.
- iCAST: mixed methods modeling approach leveraging over 80 heterogeneous model types to forecasting major instability events of interest (EOI) worldwide with greater than 80% accuracy and recall. Will transition to ISPAN Summer 2013.
- iSENT: Measures population attitudes and perception on issues, people, and events from social media through sentiment analysis from blogs, tweets, and Facebook. Sentiment propagation across the internet and identification of key sites and people in shaping opinion dynamics is also provided. Will transition to ISPAN Summer 2014.
ICEWS is undergoing operational test and evaluation by US Southern Command and Pacific Command (and available to all COCOMs), Intelligence Community, and other agencies and are currently being transitioned to US Strategic Command's Integrated Strategic Planning and Analysis Network (ISPAN) program of record.
Find ICEWS data on the Harvard Dataverse.