iCAST provides the capability to forecast instability events around the globe. This is accomplished by using a mixed methods modeling approach to forecast instability by combining forecasts from heterogeneous statistical and agent-based models to generate an aggregate forecast with accuracy of greater than 90%. Through transparency views, the user can drill-down into the underlying model variables and data to gain trust in the forecasts for themselves and experiment with the effects of changes on the model indicators in a “what-if” manner.
iCAST provides 6 month rolling forecasts for destabilizing Events of Interest (EOIs) for 167 counties around the world. The operator is able to view an aggregate forecast for each country generated from over 80 heterogeneous integrated models for each of the current 5 EOIs :
- Domestic Political Crisis,
- International Crisis,
- Ethnic/Religious Violence,
- Insurgency, and
These forecasts are coalesced from the weighted forecasts of various statistical and agent-based models yielding an aggregated forecast shown to be superior to any single modeling method. The operator can drill-down into the aggregated forecast as well as into each individual model that contributed to the aggregate forecast. One may further drill down into each model’s variables, the data used to set that variable, and explore the potential impact of each variable on the overall forecast.
Key Features and Benefits
- Operators view rolling 6 month forecasts for the world in charts and maps to assess the stability of each country.
- Drill-down capabilities exist from the aggregate model into each individual model’s variables and associated data.
- Operators can perform what-if scenarios on the individual models for analysis purposes.
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